Written by Derek Venes
When approached to contribute fantasy advice to this blog, I thought to myself "Self, what do you think is the number one thing people get wrong on draft day?" I went through the basics, such as, paying for saves, taking a pitcher in the first two rounds, entering a draft that I am a part of. You know, the usual. The one thing that people get wrong the most is so simple and small that we tend to shove it in the back of our minds like we do with our gay uncle. We reach for the big names. We clamor for the "sexy" picks. We want the guys that excite the fake fan base that fills the seats in our fake baseball teams fake stadium. What you have to understand going into a draft is that this is not a popularity contest. No one is going to like you more if you drafted Elvis Andurs over Erick Aybar. The girl your after still won't give you the time of day if you take Desmond Jennings five rounds earlier then Cameron Maybin. What I want to do is is give you 3 sexy picks, and they're ugly doppelgangers who are available a few rounds/dollars later/cheaper.
Your reaching for: Justin Verlander
I'm not going to tell you not to draft Verlander, but remember when you do, your paying for a career year. Only six pitchers in history won back to back Cy Young awards. So generally, when you grab last years winner early, your paying for last years stats which historically are lower the year after he wins the award. His ADP is around the 3rd-4th round and his average auction value is around 30 dollars.
You should hold off for: Zach Greinke
This truly is the make or break year for Greinke, at least fantasy wise. The division just lost Albert Pujols and Aramas Ramirez, not one team in the NL Central got much better offensively, the Brewers have the most "potential" run support of any team in the NL Central, and they get to face the L'Astro's 19 times! Save for ERA, all the stats are fairly similar to Verlander. His average ADP is around the 6th-7th round with an auction value of around 22 dollars. So I ask you, Why pay for Verlander when you can get almost THE SAME stats from Greinke as a much cheaper price?
Your reaching for: Elvis Andurs
Short stop is a very shallow position. After the top 3-4, it is a wasteland of speed and zero pop. I get that you want to grab a top guy to fill that spot, but unless you grab one in the first three rounds, it's not worth the price tag. Andurs Helps you in two ways and two ways only... Stolen Bases and Runs. My philosophy is to wait for speed. There are a ton of guys in the later rounds that fit that bill. Andurs is a batting average killer with very little pop. His ADP is currently around 6th-7th round with an auction value of around 15 dollars.
You should hold off for: Erick Aybar
There is one BIG factor of my Aybar man-crush....... Albert Pujols. For the first time in his carer, he is hitting in front of a mega stud, who just so happens to be the best first basemen to ever play the game. Aybar, who already has a high contact rate, will now get the chance to break the 100 run threshold. Factor in the 20 stolen base speed and decent pop, say 10-12 home runs, he is clearly the better choice to man the middle of your fake infield. His ADP is is around 10th-11th round with an auction value of about 9 dollars. So I ask you, Wouldn't you rather have a four category guy for half the price, or the two category name brand?
Your reaching for: Carlos Santana
This is more nit picky then the other two. Yeas Santana is a stud. He should be the first or second catcher off the board. The pop is there, the chance to drive in a ton of runs is there, and the first base eligibility is there. The one thing that leads me away from Santana is his price. A Fourth round pick or 25 dollars. Why reach for the star when about 3 rounds later/10 dollars cheaper I could get virtually the same identical stats from....
You should hold off for: Matt Wieters
Same stats as Santana. About the same age as Santana. The only difference is the value. This is my best argument for passing on the stars. You can literally get the SAME stats from the SAME position, 3 rounds later, or 10 dollars cheaper. Waiting for Wieters will ultimately make your team better by allowing you to fill a different position early, while knowing that your catcher spot will be set. So I ask you, who do you think has the better value? Same stats, different places in the draft.
I leave you with a word of advice. Calculate value. If you find you can get the same stats later, and cheaper, do it.
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